The climate change promise
Media reports have suggested that South Africa will meet its climate goals ahead of time, ironically due to load shedding. The Address reached out to Ms Barbara Creecy, Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment to clarify.
The climate change promise
Media reports have suggested that South Africa will meet its climate goals ahead of time, ironically due to load shedding. The Address reached out to Ms Barbara Creecy, Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment to clarify.
Background
In 2021, South Africa revised its greenhouse gas emission mitigation targets, which it set in 2016 in line with its signing of the Paris Agreement. The original fixed target for emissions reduction was 398 and 614 million tons of CO₂ between 2025 and 2030, with the revision aiming for 510-398 million metric tons for 2025, and 420-350 million metric tons for 2030.
At the time, these targets were considered ambitious by some commentators, but the government’s plan was long-sighted, and weighted, among other efforts, on the closure of some of Eskom’s oldest coal-fired power stations by 2025. However, the decision was later made not to close those stations because of the need to stabilise the national grid amid a tough regime of load shedding.
It cannot be ignored that the Climate Change Performance Index 2023 (CCPI) indicates that SA is currently among the nine counties responsible for 90% of global coal production, which clearly emphasises that there is a strong need for fossil fuel phase-out. The formation of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JEPT) in 2021 aims to do just that: collective funding of US$8.5-billion from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the European Union, holds SA to the promise of decommissioning coal-fired power plants.
Regardless, according to this year’s CCPI, SA has actually fallen five spots to 44th, bearing in mind that the results are realised from analysis across four categories comprising 14 indicators. Citing load shedding as a major reason for the increasing reduction of greenhouse emissions, therefore, discredits all the other contributing factors, which are lessening SA’s output of climate-warming gases.
Ms Barbara Creecy
SA’s Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment
SA’s Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Ms Barbara Creecy spoke to The Address, about the current status of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), coal-fired power stations, and the impacts of other interventions.
Does the decision not to close coal-based power stations affect mitigation targets, or not at all?
The new targets were determined in 2021, considering, amongst others, the decommission rate of power stations as documented in the 2019 IRP. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) is working on the 2019 IRP update and will announce at some point when that update will become publicly available. A review of the impact of the targets can only be determined once the 2019 IRP update process is concluded.
Has load shedding had an impact on the declining GHG emissions?
Our national emissions are generally on a downward trend, with or without load shedding. Regarding the impact of load shedding and COVID in particular, one has to consider that the national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends are actually on the decline. This is confirmed in the 2000-2020 GHG inventory, which clearly shows that between 2010 and 2019, national GHG emissions declined by about -9.7%. That is a significant decline, equating to 51 million metric tons when compared to 2010 national GHG emissions levels.
This change was driven by economic conditions, such as shifts in production patterns (e.g. shifting towards electric arch furnaces for steel production, which is less carbon intensive compared to iron ore reduction); and reductions in the production capacity of some of the key primary industries (e.g., ferroalloy industries).
Where are the highest mitigations coming from currently: home dwellers or business?
Emission reductions are coming from across the board. COVID, for example, brought about a review of working arrangements between employers and employees. It was thought that such working arrangements would cease to exist once COVID restrictions were done away with. However, many businesses have continued this trend, and the benefits accrue not only to businesses but also to individuals who save on fuel costs. That, in turn, reduces fuel consumption and related GHG emissions.
Industries are also implementing GHG emission reductions through the Pollution Prevention Programme that is led by the Department, and there are generally improvements in GHG emission reductions across various industry sectors. Load shedding has also precipitated the need for a shift towards demand-side renewable energy deployment, largely in the residential and commercial sectors.
A recent analysis done by Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) shows that SA has imported US$2.5 billion worth of solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, and inverters in the first half of 2023, translating to close to US$10 billion of imports since 2012, rising sharply from US$0.8 billion in 2021 and U$1.7 billion in 2022 to what TIPS considers to be a new high in 2023, demonstrating an exponential rollout of renewable energy in South Africa.
Do you believe the flurry of solar installations in private properties is making a large enough contribution to the mitigation targets?
Our mitigation policy response is based on a mix of measures and, therefore, we believe that all initiatives that contribute to emissions reductions will have a positive impact on our national mitigation goals. In this case the advantage is that the deployment of renewable energy in residential and commercial units is contributing to demand-side interventions and ultimately to our efforts in managing our electricity supply and demand in the republic.
What should property stakeholders be considering in terms of their own GHG emissions, and are the targets reachable?
It is our belief that all South African citizens have a role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions based on the day-to-day choices that they make, be it the car they drive, the manner in which they manage waste generated, investing in renewable energies, being energy and resource efficient, or exposing themselves to more education about climate change to raise awareness. All of these will go a long way towards addressing climate change.
Overall, if South Africa and its citizens implements the mix of measures that were used to inform the targets, it will be in a position to meet its targets.